By Rukayat Moisemhe
Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company, Mr Bismarck Rewane, has projected a cautious but opportunity-laden economic outlook for Nigeria in 2026.
Rewane said the year would be characterised by moderate global growth, a weaker naira, rising public debt and expanding investment opportunities across key sectors of the economy.
He made this known on Thursday in Lagos at the Nigerian-British Chamber of Commerce (NBCC) January 2026 Economic Outlook.
Presenting his macroeconomic snapshot, Rewane said the global economy in 2026 would experience moderate but resilient growth, driven by increased investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and consumer spending.
He added that central banks were expected to gradually ease monetary policy as inflationary pressures continued to moderate.
On the domestic scene, Rewane said that although Nigeria’s exchange rate remained relatively stable throughout 2025, the gap between the official rate and the parallel market rate had begun to widen, reaching N71.
According to him, the development signals renewed pressure in the foreign exchange market.
He projected that the naira would weaken to about N1,640 to the U.S. dollar by the end of 2026.
Comparing potential GDP with real GDP, Rewane said the figures suggested that the economy was operating close to full capacity, producing as much as possible without generating inflationary pressures or inefficiencies.
He identified key downside risks in 2026 to include oil price volatility and production slippages, foreign exchange shocks, reserve adequacy concerns, security risks, reform fatigue, as well as fiscal pressures and debt sustainability issues.
Rewane projected that Nigeria’s public debt would rise further.
“Nigeria’s public debt ratio will enter 2026 already elevated and will then move onto a slow upward path.
“Public debt is projected at about 40.6 per cent of GDP in 2026 and is expected to edge up each year to roughly 43.5 per cent by 2030.
“The increase will be gradual rather than explosive, indicating that debt will rise but not on an unsustainable trajectory in GDP-ratio terms,” he said.
He said new opportunities in Nigeria in 2026 would be found in financial technology, power, renewable energy, technology, oil and gas, and AI.
Rewane projected manufacturing earnings at N38.25 trillion in 2026, driven by disinflation, improved consumer purchasing power and demand, increased refining capacity from the Dangote refinery, regional trade dynamics and electricity forbearance.
However, he noted constraints such as unreliable power supply, poor infrastructure, high production costs and limited access to financing.
He said the market outlook for Nigeria in 2026 would be characterised by an average of five new listings with no delistings.
According to him, market capitalisation is expected to reach N262 trillion, while the combined earnings of the top 10 companies are projected to rise to N8.8 trillion from N4.7 trillion, with average daily turnover estimated at N135 billion.
Rewane said top investment assets to watch in 2026 included gold, equities, treasury bills and real estate.
“Real GDP is anticipated to expand to 4.1 per cent in 2026, signalling continued economic recovery.
“The exchange-rate gap between the parallel and official markets is expected to widen, while the U.S. dollar is projected to weaken against a basket of currencies, partly due to policy uncertainty and trade dynamics linked to Trump-era pressures.
“Monetary policy is expected to remain mixed and cautious, with the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) likely to be cut, though not aggressively. Consequently, a policy rate cut of about 100 basis points is expected in 2026,” he said.
Rewane added that the implementation of a new tax law in 2026 would raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 10.2 per cent, while public debt would continue to edge higher due to increased borrowings.
He also said global trading blocs and currency arrangements would be redefined, noting that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was projected to become the fastest-growing market ahead of Asia over the next decade.
In his remarks, President of NBCC, Mr Abimbola Olashore, said the forum had become indispensable for industry leaders, governments and other stakeholders to reflect and chart a forward-looking course.
Olashore said Nigeria was at a pivotal point as it entered 2026, facing broad economic challenges alongside significant opportunities.
He affirmed that fiscal and monetary pressures, global market fluctuations and emerging securities are reshaping the business landscape.
“Today’s discussion provides a timely lens to assess these dynamics and identify strategic pathways for sustainable investment and competitiveness.
“NBCC remains committed to promoting trade, investment and economic cooperation between Nigeria and the United Kingdom, while equipping members with insights and networks that enhance resilience and impact,” he said.(NAN)(www.nannews.ng)
Edited by Olawunmi Ashafa
