Food
By Okeoghene Akubuike
An economist, Ephraim Audu, has attributed the drop in Nigeria’s food inflation to increased agricultural supplies occasioned by the harvest season, which has eased supply pressures.
Audu, who is also the President of Agricultural Agenda Nigeria Initiative (AANI), said this in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Abuja on Sunday.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) had reported in its latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report that food inflation fell to 19.57 per cent year-on-year in August, from 25.30 per cent in August 2025,
The report also showed that on a month-on-month basis food inflation dropped sharply to 1.02 per cent in August from 5.56 per cent in July 2026.
The NBS attributed the drop in food inflation to the rate of change in the average prices of some food items.
He listed the food items to include palm oil, carrots, pepper, onions, cassava flour, beef, tam flour, water yam, melon (egusi), fresh ginger, fresh fish, Irish potatoes, wheat grain, frozen chicken, turkey, meat, among others.
Audu said the development was consistent with the seasonal effect of increased agricultural supply, as newly harvested produce entered the market and helped to ease supply pressures.
The economist, however, said that the decline should be regarded as disinflation rather than deflation, noting that food prices were still increasing, though at a slower rate.
According to him, the August 2025 figure of 25.30 per cent was from the rebased NBS CPI series, while the 21.87 per cent originally reported for the same period was based on the previous CPI series.
He said the two figures should, therefore, not be treated as directly comparable.
Audu said the broader trend showed that harvest season alone did not determine the direction of food inflation in the country.
“Food inflation stood at 29.34 per cent year-on-year in August 2023 and rose significantly to 37.52 per cent in August 2024, indicating that other factors could overwhelm seasonal supply effects.”
The economist also cautioned against the assumption of a fixed seasonal pattern in which food inflation would automatically decline after August and begin rising again around March.
“Agricultural output, post-harvest losses, inadequate storage, transportation costs, insecurity, input prices, exchange-rate movements, imports and prevailing market conditions all influence food prices.
“The current decline is, therefore, encouraging, but it should be viewed cautiously until it persists beyond the immediate harvest period,” he said.
Audu said to achieve sustained food-price stability in Nigeria would require policies beyond seasonal increases in agricultural production to address challenges across the entire agricultural value chain.
He urged the government to strengthen domestic food production while investing in storage, irrigation, processing, aggregation, transportation and market access.
Audu also called for affordable single-digit development financing for smallholder farmers and agribusinesses to enable them increase production and improve productivity.
He further advocated greater investment in climate-resilient and regenerative agriculture to strengthen food production against climate and supply shocks.
According to him, the ultimate objective should be to convert seasonal harvest surpluses into reliable year-round food supplies, stronger agricultural value chains and reduced vulnerability to food-price shocks.
“This will provide a more sustainable pathway to food-price stability than relying primarily on temporary harvest-driven declines in inflation.(NAN)
Edited by Kadiri Abdulrahman