By Uchechi Afonne
Nigeria’s electric vehicle (EV) market could generate cumulative savings of nearly N10 trillion by 2040, Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) says.
The analysis was presented at an RMI webinar on electric mobility in Nigeria and Kenya, focusing on two- and three-wheelers, on Tuesday.
RMI is an independent, entrepreneurial, non-profit think-do tank focused on accelerating the transition to a clean, prosperous and secure low-carbon energy future.
RMI said Nigeria’s local conditions offered significant potential for electric vehicle adoption, particularly for two-wheelers where grid charging was available.
It said a high-adoption scenario could deliver nearly 500 megatons of cumulative carbon dioxide savings by 2060.
According to the institute, the transition could support cleaner transport, local manufacturing and job creation while reducing mobility costs.
RMI said Nigeria needed stronger demand incentives, supply-side regulations and support for domestic EV manufacturing to accelerate adoption.
It said fuel-efficiency standards or a zero-emission vehicle availability standard could rapidly expand the country’s electric vehicle market.
The institute also called for carefully designed incentives to encourage domestic manufacturing, create jobs and strengthen Nigeria’s emerging electric mobility industry.
RMI said affordable financing would enable consumers and businesses to acquire EVs and benefit from their lower operating costs.
It said charging infrastructure must also be rapidly deployed, taking Nigeria’s electricity realities and grid readiness into consideration.
RMI said EVs should not be viewed only as an additional burden on the electricity system.
According to the institute, EVs could be managed to support grid operations while creating opportunities for electricity utilities.
It said its recent EV policy roadmap for Nigeria examined measures needed to develop a stronger policy framework for the sector.
Speaking at the webinar, Mr Olaoluwa Faniyi, Chief Technology Officer and co-founder of SunFi, said Nigeria could accelerate electric mobility through decentralised solar charging and battery-swapping infrastructure.
Faniyi said EV adoption remained extremely low, with electric vehicles accounting for less than one per cent of vehicles on Nigerian roads.
He attributed the slow adoption partly to electricity challenges, noting that the national grid generated about 4,000 megawatts for more than 200 million people.
Faniyi said Nigeria also had fewer than 50 public EV charging stations, limiting access to reliable charging infrastructure.
He said decentralised solar infrastructure could address electricity challenges while supporting the expansion of electric mobility.
According to Faniyi, local solar installations could eventually provide the backbone for off-grid EV charging and battery-swapping networks.
He said the approach could expand access to electric mobility without placing additional pressure on Nigeria’s constrained electricity grid.
Faniyi said commercial two- and three-wheelers should be viewed as opportunities for Nigeria’s energy, transport and climate transition.
He said electric mobility could enable drivers to reduce operating costs while creating sustainable income-generating opportunities.
Faniyi also called for policies supporting the wider clean mobility value chain, rather than focusing mainly on finished electric vehicles.
He proposed zero tariffs on standalone lithium batteries, solar charging equipment and other key components required for electric mobility.
According to him, reducing duties could attract infrastructure investment and strengthen charging systems required for wider EV adoption.
He said such measures could support local clean mobility businesses and reduce barriers to private sector investment.
Mr Dustin Kahler, EV Industry Advisor at Upeo.Earth, said African EV users were predominantly commercial operators, making operating costs important to electric mobility economics.
Kahler said commercial EV operators in East Africa could achieve between 30 and 40 per cent savings in total cost of service.
He said high borrowing costs remained a major obstacle to wider EV adoption, while supply-side financing constrained manufacturers and battery-swapping companies.
The Market Intelligent and Research Manager at Shell Foundation, Mr Habib Nuhu, called for greater mobilisation of domestic capital to finance Nigeria’s EV transition.
Nuhu said local banks, pension funds and other financial institutions needed to recognise electric mobility as a commercially viable industry.
He said much of Africa’s current EV financing came from outside the continent and was denominated in foreign currencies.
According to Nuhu, foreign-currency financing exposed EV businesses earning local-currency revenue to additional currency risks.
He said stronger domestic financing could help Nigerian businesses access capital better suited to local market conditions.
Nuhu said sector-wide risk-sharing schemes could spread lending risks and encourage financial institutions to finance EV assets.
He said lower financing costs, combined with reduced import duties, could make electric motorcycles more affordable for commercial riders.
Nuhu said evidence from India, Rwanda and Kenya showed that zero-duty policies could support electric vehicle adoption.
“One of the lessons we’ve also learned is not to be too dependent on the government and hope that the government is moving at the same speed that the industry requires to evolve,” he said.
He said private sector players needed to develop solutions that complemented government policies and responded quickly to industry needs.
The panel also identified standardised charging and battery-swapping infrastructure as important for Africa’s electric mobility growth.
Speakers said stronger collaboration across African markets could help countries share lessons on policy, financing, infrastructure and local manufacturing.
For Nigeria, the speakers said stronger domestic investment, cleaner energy and reliable charging infrastructure could unlock the economic and environmental benefits of electric mobility.(NAN)(www.nannews.ng)
Edited by Chinyere Joel-Nwokeoma