By Henry Oladele
A Professor of History and International Studies at Lagos State University (LASU), Abolade Adeniji, has said that the ongoing U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict will have far-reaching implications on Nigeria and the entire Africa.
He warned of potential economic and socio-political consequences.
Adeniji delivered a lecture organised by the Centre for General Nigerian Studies (CGNS), LASU, on Wednesday.
The lecture was entitled: “USA-Israel–Iran Conflict: Implications for Africa and Nigeria in Particular”.
The don said that global perceptions of Iran were often shaped by Western media narratives which, he said, did not fully reflect the country’s social and religious diversity.
He said that Iran, historically known as Persia, was an ancient civilisation that contributed significantly to global development before Western dominance driven by scientific and technological advancement.
Adeniji said that the current hostility between Iran and the U.S. dated back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
He added that this led to the overthrow of Shah Reza Pahlavi and the emergence of a theocratic government under Ayatollah Khomeini.
According to him, the shift in leadership altered Iran’s relationship with the West, transforming former allies into adversaries.
He added that Iran’s support for groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and others in the Middle East further deepened tensions with the U.S and its allies, which viewed such actions as sponsorship of terrorism.
The professor also traced the breakdown of their diplomatic relations to the 1979 hostage crisis, when American embassy staff were held in Tehran.
He said that the incident entrenched long-standing hostility between both nations.
On recent developments, Adeniji said that economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. significantly impacted Iran’s economy, leading to internal unrest and declining living standards.
He noted that attempts at diplomatic engagement, particularly during former U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration, were reversed under Donald Trump, worsening tensions.
Adeniji regretted Africa’s lack of a unified position on the conflict, saying that African countries remained divided along ideological and strategic lines.
“Africa has not spoken with one voice. Some countries align with the U.S., while others sympathise with Iran. There is no clear continental stance,” he said.
With regard to Nigeria, the don highlighted both economic benefits and challenges arising from the conflict
He noted that rising global oil prices could boost national revenue but said that the same development was fueling inflation and increasing the cost of living for citizens.
He also cautioned against potential exploitation of religious sentiments within Nigeria, particularly given existing sectarian divisions.
He urged political actors to avoid actions that could trigger instability.
Adeniji stressed the need for Nigeria to strengthen its military capacity and ensure transparency in the management of increased oil revenues.
He urged governments to channel any economic gains from the crisis into public welfare to mitigate hardship faced by citizens.
The professor called for caution and strategic planning, expressing hope that the conflict would de-escalate in the interest of global peace and stability.
One of the speakers, Prof. Ibrahim Bakare, also outlined the far-reaching economic implications of the ongoing conflict, warning of severe consequences.
On the global economy, the professor said the conflict had caused widespread disruption, including over 50 billion dollars in losses in oil production and a surge in crude oil prices above 100 dollars per barrel.
He added that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had reduced global oil and fertiliser supply, intensifying inflationary pressures and threatening food security worldwide.
“The war has led to significant human and economic losses, with over 10,000 deaths recorded and millions of people at risk of falling into poverty,” he said.
Bakare noted that the conflict had strained the U.S. economy, with billions of dollars spent on defence, while Israel faced infrastructure damage and loss of skilled professionals.
He added that Iran had suffered extensive economic damage, including destruction of key oil, gas and industrial facilities, economic contraction and rising poverty levels.
On Africa, Bakare warned that the conflict was worsening inflation, weakening currencies and increasing import costs across the continent.
He said that disruptions in shipping routes, including the Red Sea, had increased freight costs, affecting trade and key sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing.
“Many African countries are experiencing food shortages and energy challenges, with some adopting rationing measures,” he said.
He added that Kenya’s floriculture industry had suffered heavy export losses, while declining investments from Gulf countries were reducing financial support to African economies.
On Nigeria, Bakare said that rising oil prices presented a revenue opportunity, but also warned against mismanagement.
He said that Nigeria benefitted from oil windfalls during past conflicts, including the Yom Kippur War and the Iran–Iraq War, but failed to translate gains into sustainable development.
He said the current crisis could negatively impact Nigeria’s manufacturing, transport, agriculture and health sectors due to rising costs of energy, imports and logistics.
Bakare urged governments to utilise increased oil revenues to invest in infrastructure and strengthen economic resilience.
He emphasised the need for prudent economic management to mitigate the long-term effects of the conflict on Nigeria and the entire African continent.
Earlier in his welcome address, the Director of CGNS, LASU, Prof. M.O.B Mohammed, emphasised the need for critical engagement on global conflicts and their implications for Africa and Nigeria.
He said the event underscored the growing interconnectedness of the world, noting that conflicts in distant regions often had far- reaching political, economic and security consequences for countries beyond their borders.
The professor described the ongoing tensions involving the U.S., Israel and Iran as a significant geopolitical development with potential ripple effects on global stability, energy markets and international diplomacy.
According to him, such developments are of immense importance to Africa and Nigeria, given their vulnerability to external shocks and dependence on global economic systems.
He added that the centre remained committed to promoting informed citizenship and intellectual discourse by providing a platform for multidisciplinary analysis of pressing global issues.
He noted that the lecture featured scholars examining the conflict from historical, geopolitical and economic perspectives to give participants a holistic understanding of its implications.
He thanked the guest speakers for their contributions, saying that their insights would enrich discussions and deepen understanding of the subject.
He commended the LASU Vice-Chancellor, Prof. Ibiyemi Olatunji-Bello, for her continued support for academic excellence and initiatives that would encourage critical thinking. (NAN)(www.nannews.ng)
Edited by Ijeoma Popoola
